Demographic trends [96]
363. New Zealand’s population is expected to increase by approximately 22 per cent, from 4.185 million in 2006 to 5.089 million in 2031. The following are the most significant changes projected by the end of this period:
- Sixty-two per cent of New Zealand's population growth between 2006 and 2031 will be in the Auckland region;
- Manukau City will pass Christchurch City as the second most populous territorial authority between 2006 and 2011;
- Queenstown-Lakes District will have the highest rate of population growth with an average annual increase of 1.9 per cent over the 25 year period (2006-2031);
- Almost half of New Zealand's 73 territorial authority areas will have fewer residents in 2031 than in 2006;
- The 0-44 age group stabilises and the 65 and over age group doubles; and
- The number of families in New Zealand increases by approximately 20 per cent, with the number of households increasing by 28 per cent.
364. The increase in the growth triangle area of Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty is projected to be almost 34 per cent, compared to an increase of about 12.7 per cent in the South Island (an increase in population of 686,000 in the former, compared with 127,000 in the South Island). The population increase in Auckland will exacerbate already strained infrastructure in some sectors.
- Projected population as at 30 June 2011-2031
- Source: [source]
| Region | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | 2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland | 1,371,000 | 1,483,300 | 1,597,600 | 1,711,300 | 1,823,400 | 1,932,300 |
| Waikato | 395,100 | 412,000 | 426,500 | 439,100 | 450,000 | 458,900 |
| Bay of Plenty | 265,300 | 279,900 | 293,100 | 305,200 | 316,400 | 326,200 |
| South Island | 998,800 | 1,034,500 | 1,063,900 | 1,088,700 | 1,109,500 | 1,125,700 |
- Projected population by selected age groups at 30 June 2011-2026 (2006 base)
| Age Group | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-14 | 888,300 | 894,600 | 906,600 | 917,600 | 906,400 |
| 15-44 | 1,786,200 | 1,797,700 | 1,804,200 | 1,826,700 | 1,883,300 |
| 45-64 | 998,500 | 1,115,500 | 1,178,200 | 1,209,500 | 1,194,300 |
| 65-84 | 453,500 | 512,100 | 610,200 | 714,500 | 828,000 |
| 85+ | 58,100 | 73,400 | 89,500 | 102,500 | 127,300 |
| Total | 4,184,600 | 4,393,300 | 4,588,700 | 4,770,800 | 4,939,300 |
365. In the longer term, the proportion of super annuitants increases significantly. Given that our superannuation system and public health system work on a ‘pay-go’ basis this means there will be a corresponding increase in the burden on other taxpayers. These pension and health liabilities must also be considered when contemplating the level of debt that is sustainable in future.
Climate change
366. Climate change is a very significant environmental and economic issue. While the extent of the change is unclear, over the period of the plan climate change is likely to impact on New Zealand in a number of ways, including:[97]
- Higher rainfall in the west and less in the east;
- More frequent extreme weather events such as droughts (especially in the east of New Zealand) and floods;
- Rising sea levels; and
- Higher temperatures, but more in the North Island than the South.
367. These effects are likely to have an adverse effect on the resilience of New Zealand’s infrastructure.
368. Agricultural productivity is expected to increase in some areas, but it is likely that land-use activities will change to suit a new climate. As these changes will occur over time, the impacts on infrastructure will not be immediate.
369. The main economic impact of climate change is likely to be through commitments that require us to reduce emissions.
370. As a signatory to the Kyoto protocol, New Zealand has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions. Just how this impacts on the economy depends on the design of our domestic carbon policy. The Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) was introduced to create a price for carbon in New Zealand. It was designed to achieve emissions reductions in the sectors that can achieve these most efficiently.
371. Implementation of the ETS is expected to encourage a shift from high-emitting activities to lower-emitting ones over time.