Analysis

271. Demand for schools is mainly driven by growth in the school-aged population and the student:teacher ratio policy. From 2006-2031, the population aged between 5 and 19 years old is projected to grow by 0.85 per cent. The total population is projected to grow by 21.63 per cent over the same period.[71]

272. These aggregate population growth projections suggest relatively modest pressure in the education sector compared to some other core government services. However:

a) There are short lead-in times for investment in the education sector[72];

b) When disaggregating, there are different patterns of population changes in different locations, which particularly affect the demand for schools. For example, a significant increase in demand for schools is projected in the Auckland region[73] (see the graph that follows) and in pockets elsewhere;and

c) Changes in migration patterns and birth rates (from projections) also influence demand in the education sector.

School-age population growth - National and Auckland comparison

Source: Ministry of Education School Property Capital Plan 2009/10

 

Source: Ministry of Education School Property Capital Plan 2009/10

273. Given these areas of population growth, there will be a need for further schools to be built and therefore, a continuing demand for net additional capital.